Bad news for Dems20th May 2019
In 2015, the UK Conservatives did better than predicted by the polls. In 2016, Brexit did better than expected. At the time, I did a post pointing out that the surprise Brexit vote was bad news for Dems (although I later botched the election itself.)
Yesterday, (conservative) Liberals won a surprise victory in Australia. This is also bad news for Dems. It’s becoming increasingly clear that polls consistently underreport support for the more “politically incorrect” political party in Anglo-Saxon countries.
One glimmer of good news is that Democratic voters seem to be leaning toward more “electable” candidates such as Biden. Even though Biden is not particularly popular among progressives on the two coasts, all that matters is the “Obama/Trump” voters in the Rust Belt. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS. The Dems must win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
On balance, I think the Aussie election is more important and points to a likely Trump win in 2020.
PS. The Aussie economy is doing fine, but they have the same political polarization that we do:
Even by Australian standards, the leadership coups at public broadcaster ABC last week, which led to the sacking of managing director Michelle Guthrie and the resignation of chairman Justin Milne, have been brutal.
They have also highlighted the hyper-partisan nature of the country’s politics and the wider “culture wars” between conservatives and progressives, which are polarising debate and risk undermining confidence in public institutions.
As I keep saying, it’s not about the economy.
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