Data-light UK left to worry about Sunday Summit24th November 2018
EU Council President Tusk stated that agreement had been made on the “future relationship” political declaration and Sterling spiked higher with a push above 1.2900 against the Dollar while the Euro retreated back above 1.1300. Theresa May stated that some issues remained, including Gibraltar, although she was confident that an agreement would be reached. The domestic reaction was mixed and substantial opposition within parliament remained amid concerns that the text was not legally binding and that a vote would be lost. The Euro edged back below 1.1300 and Sterling dipped below 1.2900 on the Dollar.
After the European market closed, the Bank of England’s Michael Saunders stated that the pace of interest rate rises would likely pick up if the Brexit process goes smoothly and the economy is likely to move into excess demand during 2019 with increased capacity pressures. Position adjustment will be a key factor today ahead of the slated EU Summit on Sunday, with Sterling trading near 1.2875 against the Dollar after oil prices weakened and the Euro hovers around 1.1280.
Trading was inevitably subdued yesterday given the US Thanksgiving holiday. The recent weakness in the US Dollar across its main competitors, in the wake of concerns that the Fed may slow its pace of tightening amid economic slowdown fears, continues to keep the buoyant tone intact.
US President Donald Trump is threatening to deadlock the US government in December if his political-stunt demands on military action at the southern US border aren’t met, as well as the return of Trump’s tactic of holding the US federal government hostage in a bid to fund his campaigned border wall. The US Congress hence faces a deadline next month to fund parts of the federal government and a possible showdown over money for Trump’s proposed border wall.
Today we see Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs which could alter the Dollar price.
Yesterday all eyes were on Brexit, for a change, and the effect this was having on the Pound. It was announced that the UK and the EU had reached an agreement on Brexit which caused the Pound and the Euro to rise against the Dollar.
European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting minutes showed that Members were aware of declining global growth and decreasing inflationary pressure but they remained determined to finish their QE programme next December. This encouraged the Euro slightly, pushing it above the 1.14 level versus the Dollar.
EU Commissioner Moscovici stated he remained confident that a deal could be reached with Italy. Italian Deputy PM Salvini retaliated with the comment that he had lost patience with Moscovici and that he had insulted Italy, causing yield spreads to widen which put the brakes on any Euro rise.
Today sees German GDP numbers as well as French, German and EU PMI numbers due but no shocks or significant market movement is expected. Brexit news will dominate and any developments will cause the biggest swings.
Data to Watch:
08:30 EUR Markit Services PMI (Nov) (Germany)
08:30 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (Germany)
08:30 EUR Markit PMI Composite (Nov) (Germany)
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI (Nov)
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite (Nov)
13:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
13:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Sep)
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Oct)
13:30 CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Oct)
13:30 CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Oct)
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite (Nov)
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI (Nov)
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