Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 11 Jun 18

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I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.

  • Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. After an extended move beginning in April, the DXY has now moved into a sideways MT. This can be expected after a trend of such length. Next week is a huge week in the currency markets. Over the weekend, the G7 meet and trade will be a hot topic. On Monday the impact of this event will be digested. On Tuesday, President Trump meets with Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore. If these talks breakdown we could see a bout of risk-off. On Wednesday the FOMC meet and these will in all likelihood be a rate hike announced in the US. The dot plot will be scrutinized to the rate hike outlook for the rest of the year. If 4 hikes are telegraphed then that will be bullish USD. On Thursday the ECB meet and they will possibly outline the timeline for a wind down of their asset purchase program later this year, though they may leave any announcement to July. On Friday, Trump will make a decision whether to progress with 50 Billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods. If Trump proceeds with this, then China has threatened to withdraw its recent trade concessions. If Trump goes ahead it will likely be bearish USD.
  • Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. We have moved into a sideways MT, but no bottoming formation is a place yet so at least a retest of the lows is to be expected. Data has been picking up out of the UK, but political concerns are holding the pair back. Of note the EU withdrawal bill is with the House of Commons on copy a professional trader platform.
  • Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. After rising at the start of the week, the pair finished flat after some risk-off sentiment in stocks, volatility in bonds and the outcome of the weekends G7 meeting. BOJ meet on Friday but that is likely to be a non-event with the main drivers being the raft of events outlined above. Wait for now.
  • Wait AUD/USD. MT is sideways normal. The Aussie broke above 0.76 last week but was unable to gain any bullish momentum and we have fallen back into a sideways market type on the back of risk-off concerns over the last couple of days of the week.
  • Wait EUR/USD.MT is bear volatile. The pair has continued to bounce off the key 1.1560 support level and reached a high of above 1.18 before selling off a bit to end the week. Technically, we can expect a retest of the low at 1.1560 but EURUSD may well stay range bound ahead of the this weeks key risk events on Wednesday and Thursday. Wait for now.
  • Wait NZD/USD. MT is bull normal. The Kiwi broke out into a bull MT last week but is lacking any sort of momentum and a number of minor reversal candles have formed indicative that the trend may struggle to eventuate. Data continues to not be great out of NZ with the dairy auction results coming in weak. The RBNZ remains one of the more dovish central banks. The pair will likely move on USD events this week.
  • Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT bear normal. Risk off concerns continue to drive the pair lower but I still prefer to look for opportunities to buy CHF vs. the crosses.
  • Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. USDCAD remains range bound but intra-day price action has been volatile. Trade concerns are hampering CAD and this weekends G7 meeting outcome will be important for the pair with the two respective leaders (Trump and Trudeau) to meet and discuss trade issue. Both have been inflammatory in their comments to the media although this may just be posturing. On Friday CAD employment came in with a headline miss losing 7500 jobs, but wage growth was decent and we have seen CAD strengthen on the back of the report.
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  • Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bull normal. We are stuck mid-range of the weekly sideways quiet MT. Wait for now.

Crosses

  • Sell EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
  • Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
  • Wait EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
  • Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
  • Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
  • Sell GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell AUD/NZD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
  • Sell EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Buy AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait GBP/CAD. MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
  • Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
  • Sell GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Wait NZD/CHF. MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.

Other Markets

  • Wait USDSGD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy USDCNH. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait Gold. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
  • Sell Oil. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Wait S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Wait DAX. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
  • Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
  • Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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