FX: US Dollar Index Speculators edged bets higher, trimmed JPY shorts

10th February 2019 Off By binary

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US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators slightly raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets in early January, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The latest COT data is from early in January due to the government shutdown which halted the releases. The CFTC is releasing data on Tuesdays and Fridays going forward until the data is back up to date.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 33,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 8th. This was a weekly gain of 818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,383 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 7,343 contracts to a weekly total of 49,072 contracts that overcame the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw an increase by 6,525 contracts for the week to a  total of 15,871 contracts.

The speculative net position had fallen for seven straight weeks before the slight turnaround on January 8th.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Canadian dollar speculator bets went sharply more bearish on January 8th and bearish bets rose for a third week. The CAD speculator position fell to the most bearish level since June of 2017.

Japanese yen speculators strongly pared back their bearish bets for a third straight week and by over +27,000 contracts on January 8th. The spec position fell to the least bearish position since September 11th 2018.

Australian dollar bets went more bearish as bets fell by over -11,000 contracts. The AUD bets had improved for nine straight weeks before the January 8th decline.

Mexican Peso speculator bets jumped by over +21,000 contracts on January 8th. This was the third straight week on increasing net positions and brought the overall standing to the highest level since October 30th.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions on January 8th were the US dollar index (818 weekly change in contracts), euro (6,115 contracts), Japanese yen (27,309 contracts), Swiss franc (2,344 contracts) and the Mexican peso (21,210 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined that week were the British pound sterling (-3,178 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-15,353 contracts), Australian dollar (-11,484 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,500 contracts)

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

CurrencyNet Speculator PositionSpecs Weekly Change
USD Index33,201818
EuroFx-40,5336,115
GBP-60,092-3,178
JPY-61,31427,309
CHF-23,1862,344
CAD-66,002-15,353
AUD-37,775-11,484
NZD-1,538-3,500
MXN30,98221,210

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing for January 8th came in at a net position of -40,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,648 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level recorded a net position of -60,092 contracts in the latest data. This was a weekly reduction of -3,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,914 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of -61,314 contracts. This was a weekly rise of 27,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,623 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing reached a net position of -23,186 contracts in the data through Tuesday January 8th. This was a weekly boost of 2,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,530 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of -66,002 contracts on January 8th. This was a fall of -15,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,649 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures resulted in a net position of -37,775 contracts in the data ending Tuesday January 8th. This was a weekly decrease of -11,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,291 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing was a net position of -1,538 contracts in the latest COT data. This was a weekly decrease of -3,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,962 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 30,982 contracts. This was a weekly rise of 21,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,772 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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