Indicative votes: Round 22nd April 2019
UK GDP growth for Quarter 4 2018 printed at 0.2% for its final reading and year-on-year GDP growth edged up 0.1% to 1.4% and business investment fell slightly less than expected. The Pound spiked higher early on reports that key Conservative MPs would back the deal and consequently the Withdrawal Agreement could be approved. Gains faded in line with the hopes of approval fading away before the defeat by 59 votes was confirmed.
Sterling dipped below 1.3000 against the Dollar and the Euro moved back below 1.1630.
Brexit speculation continued over the weekend, but with no clear hope of a consensus and EU Commission President Juncker warned that patience was running out across the Channel. Today’s round of parliamentary indicative votes will be a repeat of the previous round and for the moment firmer risk appetite has allowed Sterling to move up to 1.3050.
US core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased just 0.1% in February and the year-on-year increase declined to 1.8% from a revised 2.0% maintaining expectations of weaker inflationary pressures. Personal income and spending figures were also slightly below consensus forecasts. Relatively soft data undermined the Dollar and commodity currencies were underpinned by firmer risk conditions and the Euro remained firmly on the defensive, settling around 1.1220. Slightly firmer risk conditions underpinned commodity currencies on Monday and curbed Dollar Demand to some extent with the Euro fractionally stronger around 1.1235.
Friday saw German unemployment decline by a further 7,000 for March as well German retail sales figures coming in up for February (0.9% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year). All this led to some initial support for the single currency, combined with initial rumours that the UK would support the Withdrawal Agreement. Hopes, however, were fairly short-lived. Parliament voted the motion down yet again, inverted yield curves in the US, central banks becoming more dovish and general concerns over the global economic downturn seemed to support the Dollar.
Data today consists of Spanish markit manufacturing PMI figures, Swiss retail sales, then Italian and French markit manufacturing PMI numbers. The same figures are then due out of German, the EU and the UK with the data rounded off by EU CPI numbers. However, most volatility is expected to come surrounding the latest vote on Brexit.
Data to watch:
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
03:30 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
07:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) (Germany)
08:00 EUR Unemployment (Feb) (Italy)
08:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
09:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Mar)
09:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
N/A GBP UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Feb)
12:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
12:30 USD Retail Sales Control Group (Feb)
13:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
13:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (Mar)
21:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1)
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