NonFarm to provide signal ahead of Brexit Vote8th December 2018
The Parliamentary Brexit debate continued in the House of Commons and speculation of a softer Brexit and even a second referendum kept Sterling comfortably above the 1.2700 level on the Dollar and 1.1200 on the Euro. Theresa May has so far resisted pressure to postpone the meaningful vote in Parliament and the Northern Irish backstop is proving problematic.
The latest rumours are that key Brexiteers are preparing for a second referendum and that the EU will turn their December 13-14 summit into a Brexit crisis meeting if the Withdrawal Agreement has been rejected. The EU might even consider delaying Brexit day if May indicates a second referendum is needed.
The US Dollar weakened against a basket of currencies as bond yields tumbled yesterday across the pond.
The US President Trump is confident that an agreement with China can be reached within the next 90 days as the teams of both sides are now having smooth communications and good cooperation.
Today sees the US Labour Department issue its Employment Situation Report at 13:30 UK time, more colloquially known as the nonfarm payrolls report, for its headline statistic. The monthly release details the state of the US labour market, tracking job creation, the unemployment rate, earnings and other information.
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 205,000 in November, down from the prior month’s exceptional 250,000. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 3.7% and annual average hourly earnings to have increased 3% last month, as it did in October.
There was no data of note yesterday but Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio stated that there is no need to cut budgetary reforms and that Italy will avoid the EU’s disciplinary procedure. The new CDU party leader could prompt changes to Germany’s political landscape before the 2021 elections.
Data to watch:
05:00 JPY Coincident Index (Oct)
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Oct)
07:00 EUR Industrial Production n.s.a w.d.a. (YoY) (Oct) (Germany)
10:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q3)
10:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY) (Q3)
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
13:30 USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Nov)
13:30 YSV Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
13:30 CAD Participation rate (Nov)
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment (Nov)
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
N/A EUR CDU party leader election (Germany)
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec)
17:15 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speech
20:00 USD Consumer Credit Change (Oct)
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