Speculator Extremes: Eurodollar, Corn lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

17th March 2019 Off By binary
Speculator Extremes: Eurodollar, Corn lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By CountingPips Research

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top 5 Most Bullish and Top 5 Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying instrument.

To signify an extreme position, we use the COT Index of each instrument, which has been a common method among many leading COT practitioners. The COT Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare COT Index scores across all markets in the data tables in our Premium Edition)

* Some weeks there will be less than 5 top extreme scores, however, we fill out the top 5 with the next most bullish or bearish markets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Eurodollar

The Eurodollar speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Eurodollar speculator level is currently at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled -493,337 net contracts this week which was a change by 258,514 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 1,215,243 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 1,708,580 contracts.


5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 5-Year speculator level is now at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -203,008 net contracts this week, a change by 17,212 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 775,237 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 978,245 contracts.


Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The MXN speculator level resides at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 75,096 net contracts this week which marked a change by -13,322 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 177,252 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 102,156 contracts.


Russian Ruble

The Russian Ruble speculator trader’s futures position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The RUB speculator level is at a 75 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 22,577 net contracts this week and changed by 3,041 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 35,636 contracts against the total spec short position of 13,059 contracts.


S&P500

The S&P500 speculator trader’s futures position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The S&P500 speculator level sits at a 74 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 5,563 net contracts this week which was a move of -1,237 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 7,644 contracts in comparison to the total speculator short position of 2,081 contracts.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn Futures

The Corn Futures speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -102,317 net contracts this week, a weekly change of -56,000 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 434,458 contracts versus the total spec short position of 536,775 contracts.


Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -13,169 net contracts this week which was a change by -399 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 48,836 contracts compared to the total speculator short position of 62,005 contracts.


Nasdaq Mini

The Nasdaq Mini speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -13,652 net contracts this week saw movement by 7,561 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 55,478 contracts against the total spec short position of 69,130 contracts.


Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator trader’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -65,967 net contracts this week which was a change by -35,036 contracts on the week. The speculator long position was a total of 124,763 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 190,730 contracts.


Sugar

Finally, the Sugar speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -65,987 net contracts this week and changed by -43,475 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 176,302 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 242,289 contracts.


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (speculators & large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Article by CountingPips Research


 

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