Weekly Game Plan 21 May 1825th May 2018
With no market moving developments over the weekend, the Wellington open should be fairly calm outside of NZD Retail Sales (more on that below). Also, remember that Monday will be a Bank holiday in Europe and Canada. The only piece of news worthy of note is the apparent agreement that China will increase it’s purchases of US goods, although the 200 Bln figure touted by Trump has not been officially confirmed. However, it would seem like a step forward and defuse some tension.
So while developments in trade policy such as current US-China negotiations and NAFTA negotiations require perpetual monitoring, center stage this week will be taken by FOMC minutes with participants scrutinising risks to inflation and to a faster or slower pace of rate hikes.
The UK action starts with CPI for April on Wednesday, then moves on to retail sales the next day and ends with possible revisions to Q1 GDP growth on Friday. Don’t dismiss Carney’s 3 speeches this week either or the inflation hearings on Tuesday.
In Europe, keep an eye out for rogue headlines from the Italian political scene, which has become a focal point and is putting pressure on the Euro.
The only serious data from AsiaPac is NZD Retail Sales, which is a tough call but may effectively disappoint this time round.
Going into the week I maintain a long bias on FTSE, a short bias on EUR, GBP, Jpy vs Aud & Usd.