Whatever floats your boat

20th March 2019 Off By binary
Whatever floats your boat
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[If you only have time for one post today, my Econlog post is the better choice.]

Some people seem to feel a deep need to announce one “bubble” after another. Here’s the FT announcing another American “housing bubble”. I guess as long as this practice contributes to mental health, I have no objection. Just don’t let the belief in bubbles alter your behavior in any way.

Here’s The Economist, in 2011:

The bursting of the Bitcoin bubble

BITCOIN, briefly the world’s favorite cryptocurrency, is in trouble. It plummeted from a peak of around $33 per unit in June to just $2.51.

Whew! So glad I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $33. Thanks Economist.

And here’s CNN Business in 2013:

The price of Bitcoins has plunged more than 70% in the past two days, sparking a rush of activity that overwhelmed trading platforms and suggested the bubble in the virtual currency has burst. Bitcoins were down to $77.56 as of 3 p.m. ET Friday.

Prices reached as high as $266 per Bitcoin around 7:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. But the price started to fall through the rest of day and Thursday morning.

And here’s CNN Business in 2015:

Bitcoin lost more than 60% of its value last year. The digital currency has already plunged another 30% in the first few days of 2015 — and that includes a 30% rebound on Thursday!

The price of Bitcoin (XBT) briefly fell below $200 on Wednesday, an important psychological barrier, before bouncing back. . . .

Bitcoin was a bubble that has burst. Jeffrey Gundlach, head of influential investment firm DoubleLine, is firmly in the Bitcoin bear camp. In a webcast on Tuesday, Gundlach declared that Bitcoin is “on its way to being relegated to the ash heap of digital currencies.”

Now in 2019, Bitcoin prices are up to nearly $4000 and there is even more bubble talk:

We can safely say the ICO bubble is over now.

“Safely”? We can now have confidence on where Bitcoin prices will be next year? Next decade? Next century?


PS. You say, “bubbles are hard to define but I know one when I see it”. Really? How about an SUV? Do you know an SUV when you see one? Below I provide two pictures of cars that are listed as SUVs:

An SUV when I was young
An SUV today

HT: Tyler Cowen

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